Thorsten Heins's announcement that the company will lose money this quarter suggests that there is no clear path to the BlackBerry maker to return to health

This is what I think RIM is going in the yard switches, as sure as a boat that has reached the end of his life. Over the next 18 months or more, the company will be divided by their useful parts - BlackBerry Messaging, customers BlackBerry Enterprise Server. Gravity is sucking is now inevitable, to change the metaphor, is a spaceship trying to get out of a black hole, but not Scotty board

The irony is that this black hole is actually two things: the years of complacency regarding their market position (from which emerged a lack of investment in what will actually happen), and playbooks. The grass blows. The tablet itself has destroyed an entire enterprise, to distract you from the future.

The other irony is that many companies like RIM and want to survive, industry sources say they are better margins from the sale of their mobile phones than they the iPhone Apple or high-end Android phones. The problem is that clients are not listening.

(Let me tell you that there must be this way, and I wish that I did in the past, I had words of praise for the BlackBerry. In mid 2003, I thought the 7230 was almost perfect. But reality bites, and hard drive).

Consider some facts:

on the basis of official figures on Tuesday, I believe that, on average, for every 10 mobile phones RIM ships, only one reached a new customer. The situation is complicated by the rotation (people from leaving, while others join), but people do not leave the platform of success.

. You have been treated on the market

the playbook is

yet

not to sell, a year after being introduced

. The company is down, even though the smartphone market - which has helped to define - is growing 50% a year

. no rabbits. It was just a hat.

Bad news or bad news?
start with what Thorsten Heins, the man with the unenviable task of managing director (after Balsillie co-founders Mike Lazaridis and Jim winkled are finally out of the communal property), has said Tuesday. The bankers are called to see what their plans are the right one, too, RIM will make an operating loss this quarter.

It will be two consecutive quarterly losses for RIM, and Heins did not have much in the way of bringing news to follow. "The current competitive environment affecting our business in the form of lower volumes and price dynamics in the highly competitive market," he said. Translation:. We do not sell in many mobile phones as it s' expected, and we sell for less

He stressed that the company will increase its "cash position in Q1 [this quarter] to about $ 2.1 billion that we had" at the end of the previous quarter, in February.

analysts quickly honed their keyboards and downrated all. Mark Sue of RBC Capital, who was among the most pessimistic Wall Street's lowered its revenue forecast for the quarter of $ 3.2 billion (3.7 billion against the consensus) to less than $ 3 billion. Heins warning "sign of its business is deteriorating faster than expected," said Sue Wednesday morning. He thinks his phone shipments fell below 8 m, a level not seen since 2009, and that might mean that less than 5% of the smartphone market: "In our opinion, below 5% stake is the kingdom of operations of the subscales, a razor thin profits, and decreased the chances of a recovery, "writes Susan.

This means in turn, said that the BlackBerry 10 "is now facing an even bigger battle," because the challenge to obtain and retain customers and businesses and carriers and Remember, developers - becomes increasingly difficult. "We see RIM losing their most lucrative users (United States), which can be hard to find BlackBerry yet 10. New international subscribers are price sensitive and can be difficult to maintain over time." (C ' is a good point about price sensitivity.)

He believes that a broader strategic need to rethink - maybe RIM should withdraw, withdraw from certain overseas operations to low-margin, focusing on BB10, see if you can build alliances with PC makers do not have a mobile strategy (not to mention actually Sue Dell and HP, but the most obvious would be to think. Both have stunk the place with their efforts on mobile)

good ideas, but will not buy enough time, and BB10 is not a panacea. In fact, it's just a ball. I have not heard someone say that BlackBerry BB10 will suddenly more attractive to buyers. It will be cheaper, and they will do nothing that makes all the other smartphones. The company becomes commoditized, and only those who can stand out from the fray merchandise (Apple) or do not know how to win in a battle of products (Nokia) will be able to compete in the Android low end, medium and high.

(If you wonder why I intend Nokia has an opportunity here, there are two reasons: Stephen Elop was the problem 18 months ago and moved to fix it, and Nokia has an existing platform , Symbian, which is still a service and allow Windows Phone - with all the money Microsoft's marketing behind it -. to gain some momentum RIM has not even of interest, sources of industry are still not seeing much in the consumer Lumias. Nokia, and unfortunately, I wonder if you're Apple and Android.)

Growth

subscribers RIM (slightly different from BBM users, who are less) almost stopped dead. In one or two quarters, probably will. Here is the table:

Heins pre-announced that it has reached 78m RIM subscribers (who are different users BBM). They are an important source of income. Thus, RIM told me recently: "The basis of BlackBerry subscriber account is the total of all customer accounts that were active at the end of the reporting period ... RIM generates revenues of billing based BlackBerry subscriber account in particular from a right of access to an infrastructure monthly carrier or supplier, carrier or distributor in the bills of the subscriber's BlackBerry tower. "

370 million compatible devices. Even allowing for some degree of substitution, it is likely over 300m in operation
Apple

:. Approximately 175 million iPhones sold. More were sold in the last two years than in the first two years, and the number is increasing, so that you can say that there are over 100 meters - perhaps 125 million - Operating

RIM : 78m subscribers and the number is hitting a plateau. After a plateau, what? Response: decrease

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