mathematical model based on profit activity forecast Wikipedia great films with an accuracy of 90%

business models can predict the Wikipedia collection opening at the box-office hit movies a month before their release, according to scientists.

Yasseri Taha, a physicist at the Budapest University of Technology and Economics, created a mathematical model that takes into account data such as the number of readers and editors of Wikipedia page for an upcoming film and showed a correlation with weekend opening fund the film.

Yasseri and colleagues, and J?nos Kert?sz Mesty?n M?rton, built the model using data from 312 films with Wikipedia pages, a total of 535 that were published in the United States in 2010. In general, samples paired box office actually predicted with an accuracy of about 77%.

For films with larger samples - such as Iron Man 2, Alice in Wonderland, Toy Story 3 and Inception - the relative accuracy of the prediction model is greater than 90%. The forecast for less successful films like Never Let Me Go, Animal Kingdom and The Killer Inside Me, varied more widely than what actually happened.

"We were looking for fingerprints on the popularity of a film," said Yasseri. Inputs Wikipedia Popular films that would have been more tightly edited and accessed by more readers.

Yasseri said that the model could be used in studies to help predict the chances of success of his films. However, their main goal was to show how researchers can answer questions using sociological data sets being collected huge on social media sites like Wikipedia, Twitter and Facebook.

"We wanted to show that there is a way to track these things through the impact of social media," said Yasseri.

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